Bernoulli抵消策略的负顾客的M/G/1排队系统

负顾客的排队模型是排队论近年来的新兴分支。文中引入了带有B ernou lli抵消策略的负顾客的M/G/1排队模型,即到达的负顾客以概率p抵消队首正在接受服务的正顾客,以1-p的概率抵消队尾的正顾客,利用补充变量法,状态转移法和L变换,最后得到系统稳态队长的概率母函数。     

高校学生党员教育培训模式研究

要客观地了解当前学生党员的思想实际，把握教育对象存在的问题和自身特点，就必须加强调查研究，探索出解决问题的方法和教育培训模式，以确保高校培养出合格的高素质学生党员。     

基于截断函数的有限时间滑模控制方法

针对一类二阶不确定非线性系统的鲁棒控制问题,提出一种基于截断函数的有限时间滑模控制算法。该算法具有以下特点:系统状态可在期望的有限时刻收敛为零;受控系统对外部扰动和参数不确定性具有全局鲁棒特性;系统状态的动态响应可解析预测;通过选择不同的截断函数可以实现对控制器性能的调节。仿真结果验证了所提算法的有效性。     

红外与可见光图像融合算法性能评估

在研究小波分析的基础上,鉴于不同小波函数和融合规则对融合效果的影响,通过改变小波函数和融合规则对红外与可见光图像进行大量融合实验;首先,研究了不同类型小波函数的性质,分析了不同融合算法的特点;接着,对融合实验结果进行了定量分析和比较,为不同应用目的和场合正确选择合适的小波函数和融合规则进行红外和可见光图像融合提供了理论依据.     

石河子气温变化趋势特点的奇异谱分析

本文采用1961—2001年石河子地区的气象资料，利用奇异谱分析的方法，分析了40a来气温变化，结果表明，石河子的气温变化具有4个明显的变化周期，分别为33—34年，11—12年，8—9年，3—4年；利用噪声驱动阻尼振子模型对得到的时间周期做了初步的分析，并利用拟合函数集对石河子气温给出了对应的函数变化关系。利用该方法可以对气温的变化特征有一个明晰的物理理解，也可以为将来的气温变化趋势的预测给出一定的借鉴作用。     

Threshold optimization for weighted voting classifiers

Weighted voting classifiers considered in this paper consist of N units each providing individual classification decisions. The entire system output is based on tallying the weighted votes for each decision and choosing the one which has total support weight exceeding a certain threshold. Each individual unit may abstain from voting. The entire system may also abstain from voting if no decision support weight exceeds the threshold. Existing methods of evaluating the reliability of weighted voting systems can be applied to limited special cases of these systems and impose some restrictions on their parameters. In this paper a universal generating function method is suggested which allows the reliability of weighted voting classifiers to be exactly evaluated without imposing constraints on unit weights. Based on this method, the classifier reliability is determined as a function of a threshold factor, and a procedure is suggested for finding the threshold which minimizes the cost of damage caused by classifier failures (misclassification and abstention may have different price.) Dynamic and static threshold voting rules are considered and compared. A method of analyzing the influence of units' availability on the entire classifier reliability is suggested, and illustrative examples are presented. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 322–344, 2003.     

What you should know about simulation and derivatives

Derivatives (or gradients) are important for both sensitivity analysis and optimization, and in simulation models, these can often be estimated efficiently using various methods other than brute‐force finite differences. This article briefly summarizes the main approaches and discusses areas in which the approaches can most fruitfully be applied: queueing, inventory, and finance. In finance, the focus is on derivatives of another sort. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

Conflict dynamics and costs in the Greek Civil War 1946–1949

Using a new set of data from Greek Army sources, US military archives, and Communist Party documents, the paper provides a quantitative analysis of the armed confrontation that took place in Greece during 1946–1949. A dynamic Lotka–Volterra model is estimated, pointing to the existence of a conflict trap that explains the prolongation of the civil war and its dire consequences for the country. A regional analysis finds that the mobilization of guerrilla forces was crucially affected by morphology and the local persecutions of political rivals. Using neoclassical growth-accounting, the economic cost of the conflict is estimated to surpass an annual GDP, in line with similar findings in contemporary civil wars. The same framework is employed to assess the outcome in counterfactual situations discussed in this paper.     

水下仿生推进器阀控液压摆动关节建模与动态特性分析

采用液压驱动的模拟鱼柔性长背鳍波动运动的水下仿生推进器,当改变液压系统的流量和阀的控制参数时,其运动学参数能够迅速地做相应调整,实现平稳、流畅、连续的仿生运动。建立了阀控液压摆动关节的动力学模型,根据动力学模型得到系统传递函数,并绘制了Bode图。根据传递函数分析了阀控液压摆动关节的稳定特性、动态位置刚度特性和动态响应特性。结果表明阀控液压摆动关节具有一定的自稳定性,其工作频率与影响位置刚度的负载变化频率重叠,动态响应速度可以通过优化结构参数来调整。     

基于Copula方法的含交易方违约的信用违约互换定价

本文讨论了含交易方违约的信用违约互换定价问题，应用无套利原理得到了模型的价格，文章采用蒙特卡洛方法对模型进行了数值模拟，讨论了模型的价格与合约期限以及公司违约相关系数的关系。